The engine of Chaos: Burhane’s plan collides with the Central African Uprising Wall and the Haftar-Deby axis
By MBL — Bangui, on January 20, 2026
As Sudanese General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan tries to reexport the Sudanese conflict in order to stifle his rival « unza Hemetti », his ambitions of making the sub-region his new battleground is met with fierce resistance. Between the military lockdown of Central Africa and cross-border alliances involving Libya, Khartoum’s strategy is faltering.
The Bangui Non-Categorical Notation
The message of the Renaissance Palace is unambiguous: President Faustin-Archange Touadera will never allow the Central African Republic to serve as a rear base for Burhane’s war ambitions. Refusing to let his country become the scene of a proxy war, the former head of state took the lead.
To lock down the territory, an exceptional security device has been established. Several thousand FACA soldiers, solidly supported by the Russian allies, were deployed along the northern borders. This strategic deployment is intended to neutralize any attempt by pro-Burhane forces seeking to take the Hemetti FSR by storm. Today, this « security wall » is thwarting Khartoum’s plans in the Vakaga.
The hidden goal: Cutting the road to Marshal Khalifa Haftar
Burhane’s offensive in southern Chad hides a larger purpose: to break the axis of logistical support that links Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar (Libya) with his regional allies. Haftar is now a central pillar for his partners: he supports both President Mahamat Idriss Deby in Chad and General Hemetti in Sudan. By creating a hotbed of instability in southern Chad and by seeking a breakthrough in CAR, Burhane hopes to cut off supply routes and communications between Cyrenaica and the Sahel.
The Southern Front of Chad: Cross threats in Korbol
While Bangui barricades himself, N’Djamena is under direct pressure on his southern flank. Field information indicates the presence of armed movements in Korbol, threatening directly the capital.
There are the FRAPPE movements and the MPRD (Movement for Peace, Reconstruction and Development), factions more or less close to Masra’s success.
These groups are trying to take advantage of the dispersal of Chadian forces to increase pressure on the regime.
The confusion is total at the border: according to sources, collaborators of Noureddine Adam, including the sulfurous Haroun Gueye, were allegedly arrested by the Chadian army before being mysteriously released. These suspicious movements indicate that Khartoum is trying to reactivate old rebel networks in order to circumvent national defenses.
The CEMAC against the breakthrough of the Muslim Brotherhood , cf.
The heads of state of the CEMAC view Burhane’s strategy with a very bad eye, which they suspect to be the vector for a strong return of the Muslim Brotherhood networks in Central Africa. The prospect of a radical ideology settling in favor of military chaos is an absolute « red line » for the leaders of the zone.
Conclusion: The three pillars of salvation for N’Djamena
For President Mahamat Idriss Deby, the survival of the Chadian state in the face of this programmed destabilization now requires three vital strategic axes:
- Reinforcement of cooperation with the CAR*: Create an unshakable common security bloc.
Direct call for agreements with Russia: Follow the Bangui model to stabilize areas of turbulence through Russian technical and military support.
Integration into the New Alliance of Sahel States (AES) : Join this bloc to join a dynamic of mutual defense and strengthened sovereignty in the face of Khartoum’s interference.